They engage in suicidal terrorism to either protect their families from the threat of harm, or to provide them with comfort by means of money.
On the other hand, Caplan also notes that suicidal terrorism is extremely rare, and is therefore a greater indicator of self-interest among terrorists than engaging in suicidal activities. The author concludes that it is probably more rational not to wish to commit suicide for the cause of terrorism than it is to do so. Available statistics appear to confirm this.
Caplan cites terrorist beliefs as one of the main reasons for the perception of their actions as irrational. One of these improbable beliefs is the example of the 72 virgins mentioned above. This is the reward promised for suicide bombers. Furthermore, extreme predictions regarding the dire future of the United States are called a "certainty," while these have clearly not been realized. Caplan argues that such beliefs cannot in any reality be considered rational. Indeed, religious beliefs by nature are often irrational when the rational expectations paradigm is applied. The author notes that there is no rational grounds for Bin Laden's belief that there will be 72 virgins on the other side of a suicide attack, or indeed that he will be victorious over his enemies. Indeed, history has proven the latter to be decidedly unlikely. The persistent belief in such victory is therefore irrational in terms of what could realistically be expected.
In terms of their belief system, therefore, terrorists tend to be decidedly irrational. According to this assessment, all terrorists, including sympathizers, are irrational, as they disregard the facts of their situation: there has been no historical victory for Islam, yet adherents continue to believe in ultimate victory. On the other hand, however, terrorists believe in their cause with complete religious faith. In this way, their belief system itself serves as the basis for assessing adherents as rational. They make a choice on the grounds of what they believe the outcome of their actions will be. This relates back to the narrow selfishness assessment of terrorist actions.
Caplan attempts to solve the paradox between narrow selfishness and irrationality in the face of evidence with his model of rational irrationality. Although irrational, terrorists prefer to maintain their fidelity to beliefs that they cherish. They do so even when all evidence is against them. Benefits derived from this can relate to both a psychological and social advantage. In terms of psychological advantage, the belief in something higher and more meaningful than oneself provides a person with a sense of meaning and identity. Socially, beliefs serve as a binding force for social groups. Discarding these beliefs, even in the light of new evidence, may result in expulsion from the social group. The advantage derived from maintaining the belief, however irrational, therefore outweighs the disadvantage of altering it. Ultimately this means that maintaining such beliefs is rational.
Caplan further considers the irrationality of terrorists and their beliefs in terms of the consequences of such irrationality. According to his rational/irrational model, terrorists choose to believe what is irrational in terms of the world of reality, or the world as it is. The author further expounds that these beliefs are not necessarily only made on the basis of social or psychological benefit, but may also be based upon the material cost of being wrong. According to the author, there is seldom any cost to the terrorists themselves, while the price of their incorrect beliefs is paid by others, except perhaps in the case of suicidal terrorism. Hence the terrorist has the luxury of continuing in the false belief, while causing destruction for the rest of the world.
By considering terrorism by means of the rational choice model, one could argue that, in the minds of the terrorists themselves, they are rational to make the belief choices that they do. They do not believe simply for the sake of doing so, nor do they engage in their activities simply for their sake. Indeed, there are reasons behind the choices that terrorists make, and from this point-of-view, they can be seen to be rational. Furthermore, terrorists believe absolutely in what they do, and that it will ultimately benefit them and their families, whether in this life or the next. It is therefore logical to them to proceed in their beliefs and actions. The rational choice model therefore appears to be a useful approach to analyzing terrorist behavior.
Jessica Weisbach (2004) analyzes terrorism from the psychological perspective. She notes that terrorists should not be classified as psychotic, as they do not suffer uniformly from a specific, identifiable...
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